根據(jù)雷斯塔能源的研究顯示，2022年，年度綠地資本支出突破了1000億美元的門檻，并將在2023年再次突破，這是自2012年和2013年以來(lái)連續(xù)兩年首次突破。該公司聲稱，海上石油和天然氣行業(yè)將在“未來(lái)兩年實(shí)現(xiàn)十年來(lái)最高的增長(zhǎng)”，新項(xiàng)目投資將達(dá)到2140億美元。
這家能源市場(chǎng)情報(bào)提供商概述稱，由于全球化石燃料需求仍然強(qiáng)勁，各國(guó)都在尋找碳友好型生產(chǎn)來(lái)源，預(yù)計(jì)2023年和2024年，海上活動(dòng)將占所有批準(zhǔn)的常規(guī)碳?xì)浠衔锏?8%，高于2015至2018年期間的40%。
就項(xiàng)目總數(shù)而言，雷斯塔強(qiáng)調(diào)，在未來(lái)兩年，海上開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目將占到所有批準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目的近一半，而2015至2018年僅為29%。
此外，新投資將對(duì)海上服務(wù)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)福音，2023年和2024年，供應(yīng)鏈支出將增長(zhǎng)16%，同比增長(zhǎng)210億美元，創(chuàng)十年新高。與此同時(shí)，海上鉆機(jī)、船舶、海底和浮式生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)油和卸載(FPSO)活動(dòng)都將蓬勃發(fā)展。
雷斯塔強(qiáng)調(diào)，全球主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素之一是中東海上活動(dòng)的大規(guī)模擴(kuò)張，由于沙特阿拉伯、卡塔爾和阿聯(lián)酋的大型項(xiàng)目，該地區(qū)的海上上游支出將首次超過(guò)其他所有地區(qū)。
該地區(qū)的海上支出增長(zhǎng)至少在未來(lái)三年內(nèi)將繼續(xù)，從今年的330億美元增長(zhǎng)到2025年的410億美元。這些國(guó)家正在開(kāi)發(fā)其龐大的海上資源，以滿足日益增長(zhǎng)的全球石油需求，并得到必要的資本和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的支持，以趕超其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)。
雷斯塔能源供應(yīng)鏈研究主管Audun Martinsen表示，海上油氣生產(chǎn)不會(huì)消失，該行業(yè)現(xiàn)在可能比以往任何時(shí)候都更重要。作為一種低碳密集型的碳?xì)浠衔镩_(kāi)采方法，隨著全球超級(jí)大國(guó)在推進(jìn)能源轉(zhuǎn)型的同時(shí)努力減少碳足跡，海上運(yùn)營(yíng)商和服務(wù)公司應(yīng)該會(huì)在未來(lái)幾年獲得意外收獲。
盡管中東處于領(lǐng)先地位，但雷斯塔能源解釋道，南美、英國(guó)和巴西只是略微落后，因?yàn)橛?guó)和挪威在北海的投資預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)兩年也將增加。因此，英國(guó)今年的離岸投資將增長(zhǎng)30%，達(dá)到70億美元，而挪威的投資將達(dá)到214億美元，比2022年增長(zhǎng)22%。
另一方面，巴西今年的上游投資預(yù)計(jì)將接近230億美元，圭亞那的投資總額為70億美元。在北美，美國(guó)和墨西哥的海上支出將分別超過(guò)175億美元和73億美元。
此外，巴西國(guó)有能源巨頭巴西國(guó)家石油公司(Petrobras)計(jì)劃在本世紀(jì)二十年代結(jié)束前在六個(gè)油田部署16艘FPSO，而圭亞那Stabroek區(qū)塊的增長(zhǎng)也將有助于區(qū)域擴(kuò)張。在長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)中，雷斯塔能源強(qiáng)調(diào)，中東地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)即使不會(huì)加速，也將繼續(xù)，而南美地區(qū)的支出將在2025年放緩。
原文如下：
Offshore oil & gas set for growth with $214 bln of investments in the pipeline
With more than $200 billion of greenfield investments expected by 2025, the offshore oil and gas sector is expected to get back in the spotlight, according to Rystad Energy, an energy market intelligence group.
Rystad Energy’s research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) broke the $100 billion threshold in 2022 and will break it again in 2023, which is the first breach for two straight years since 2012 and 2013. The company claims that the offshore oil and gas sector is set for “the highest growth in a decade in the next two years,” with $214 billion of new project investments lined up.
The energy market intelligence provider outlines that offshore activity is expected to account for 68 per cent of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024, up from 40 per cent between 2015-2018, as global fossil fuel demand remains strong and countries look for carbon-friendly production sources.
In terms of total project count, Rystad highlights that offshore developments will make up almost half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years, up from just 29 per cent from 2015-2018.
Furthermore, the new investments will be a boon for the offshore services market, with supply chain spending to grow 16 per cent in 2023 and 2024, a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. In line with this, offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish.
Rystad underlines that one of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East, as offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others for the first time, lifted by mammoth projects in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
The region’s offshore spending growth looks set to continue at least for the next three years, growing from $33 billion this year to $41 billion in 2025. Rystad underscores that these countries are tapping into their vast offshore resources to meet rising global oil demand, backed by the necessary capital and infrastructure to outpace other producers.
Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research at Rystad Energy, remarked: “Offshore oil and gas production isn’t going anywhere, and the sector matters now possibly more than ever. As one of the lower carbon-intensive methods of extracting hydrocarbons, offshore operators and service companies should expect a windfall in the coming years as global superpowers try to reduce their carbon footprint while advancing the energy transition.”
Even though the Middle East is leading the way, Rystad explains that South America, the UK and Brazil are just slightly behind, as investments in the North Sea from the UK and Norway are also expected to rise in the next two years. As a result, the UK’s offshore spending is set to jump 30 per cent this year to $7 billion, while Norwegian investments will hit $21.4 billion, an increase of 22 per cent over 2022.
On the other hand, Brazilian upstream spending is projected to approach $23 billion this year, with Guyana investments totalling $7 billion. In North America, spending on offshore in the U.S. will top $17.5 billion and $7.3 billion in Mexico.
Moreover, Brazil’s state-owned energy giant Petrobras plans to deploy 16 FPSOs across six fields before the end of this decade, while growth in the Guyanese Stabroek Block will also contribute to regional expansion. In long-term forecasts, Rystad Energy emphasizes that Middle Eastern growth is set to continue, if not accelerate, while South American spending will slow in 2025.
